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Tuesday, May 13, 2008

My Stock Picks (Long) & Other Economic Predictions

Anyway, I'm not against managed funds at all. They a lot less work and probably same in costs in the long run (esp. the low load funds). There was certainly a learning curve in my first month and I could pay less in fees if I just stuck to a few stock or indexes. Anyway, I currently have around 40 different securities which means more fees on the back end (at least $399 worth). I wouldn't do that again unless I was dealing in very large amounts. So, as managed funds go, the company I'm working with only does the safest, most stable type, but has access to everything else (ie. not contracted to only sell through one broker or certain products).

But, it's not like Vegas where you leave and they keep everything. Well, OK, I won $2,300 my first and only time gambling there and the person I was with who fronted me cash, an obvious addict gambled it away (lost $20,000 there and was a regular-- explains why the wife and kids left).

Anyway, my point was I go long, in general, and I'm not "betting the farm" and it's so easy to have a "come-back".
I should probably admit that I'm a Bloomberg TV addict as well. The best part is their 3am footage covers the art world as well and they actually know their shit in that market as well (great interviews with all the blu-chip players). At this point I should tell you I've a MFA & BFA if you didn't already know.

So, I'm not advising anyone via this blog to buy anything, or sell any service. But if you are curious what I've been looking at I'll tell you. I started with my tax refund this year (from last year which I late-filed in November, and btw the IRS gave me 4.75% interest on my return for filing so late--printed right on my check.)
I also "found" unclaimed funds of mine in a previous state in a savings account from over 10 years ago. I can't even remember how that happened. Probably also a tax refund, I have no idea. I was expecting $0.85 back, or maybe $6 back since the amount in the account wasn't listed. Instead I got a check for around $12058. That is my positive banking story for this year. It made my year.

I had this hunch (like an inner nag) saying "Buy Google, buy Google." (GOOG)-- so I did-- bought it when it was way low and everyone was freaking out about the company's future. I only buy it when it's low. Also, no one can spell without Google, find anything, and every kid uses it to write their papers... besides that their gmail email has genius programming in that the more that use it, the more space available. And high company ethics, and had programers mess with the code so that back in the day, "miserable failure" and "total idiot moron" came up with search results for "George W. Bush". Also, this blog is via Google and my nickname as a baby to adulthood from my dad was and is still "Googs." Coincidence? That alone is the cause of my huge attachment to Google. In fact, when it first came out and it was scorned it, I knew it would be huge being that it was any relation to "Googs" and seemed to be well designed and fast! (If I had $300 bucks to spare then I would have invested) --It's not going anywhere. Enough said.

Other growth interests:
CHCG--riskier because it's in China and way low, but it's just signed a contract to merge with the Walmart of China (bought it originally on a rumor of internet university interests, but it appears to be more of a retain chain for cell phones, like a Radio Shack. It's a long shot, but it's also so cheap per share that if it loses value, so what. It's not worth selling, but I'd buy more in the future if the stock improves. I only have about 3 shares. The companies success really depends on how China is doing, but everyone needs cellphones, toasters and rice cookers regardless. I'm going long.

SOL or Renesola (a solar chip manufacturer) is a new one--very promising & supported by a few major solar players. I got in when it opened. Then it took a nose-dive and has now doubled from then. Also is in China with a bunch of contracts for major solar manufacturers.

CSUN-China Sun Energy Co, also manufactures solar circuits... It's been very steady and is still very cheap.
Go long... (Hold)

WDC --make computer drives tech.

STX -Seagate Technology I like -- make disk drives & new super drives cataloguing/encrypting/security technology. (They do pay dividends and bought back stock during the "Spring meldown" so that's a great sign.

MVL - Marvel Ent-- comics and tons of sci-fi movies like Spiderman, and a bunch coming out this year... plus action figure lines. If you've ever been to the San Diego comic con and seen the amount of sci fi nerds (and that's only the ones who were local with free time or nerdy enough to travel for it) you know it's a good investment (Long).

ATVI -Activision. A friend said, "My friend works there, you should buy it." I said, "How talented is this guy." He said, "Very." Also a nerdy venture, based in Santa Monica, CA -- makes of Guitar Hero and others for WII and anounced a new kiddie league of baseball for the WII coming out as well. This company is going to be huge. I can feel it.

NTGR -Netgear I bought on a newsletter rec. It's been pretty consistent. Their technology uses internal wiring of houses to phone (ie any wire becomes a phone line). Sounds promising.

CPRT- also a newsletter rec. It's been doing pretty well and is about to launch more part locations in the midwest (it's an industrial online auto part/salvage warehousing/auction system-- like ebay of wrecked cars for the auto & insurance industry).

VOL -Volt Information Services --business support specialists via India for locations worldwide (ie customer support operators). Does better obviously, when labor in India is cheaper than US or Europe. (Hold)

GAF- Emerging Markets of the Middle East (Index). I bought this one when I heard via NPR that they recommended this one for Muslim investors who apparently can't invest in any fee-charging stocks per their religion (or use banks, etc). It's the only security they can invest in (besides 1 mutual fund). Based on the number of Muslims out numbering any other religion, this one is a great bet, besides that the mid-east economies are on the up and up. It's interests are in North African, Israeli & other mideast interests. The dividend earned is very next to nothing (not to allowed to profit from...) Anway, the funds fairly new and doing pretty well.

QID --Proshares Ultra Short (Index) does 200% the opposite of the S&P and also pays dividends. It's my hedging.

ECV -- Blackrock Enhanced Equity -- at 12% interest I bought it. It's about to merge pending voting with their 2 other closed funds which might push the % down to 10% or so... (Hold)

AMAT-- another tech growth stock that's hugely promising.

GS PRB-- Goldman Sacks Preferred -B very steady (vs. A which has been low). They're not going anywhere and have increased.

MAT -Mattel -- Because a billion baby boomer had kids who had kids who will have more kids and on, and they will all want toys, and later in life, nerdy sci fi action figures as 40 and 50 year olds. Plus a zillion illegal immigrants all buy their kids toys as well, even in bad economies. And babies will need monitors and other baby paraphernalia, even if they are all made in China a coated in lead paint. MAT says they've solved all of that. They pay dividends.

Others: IWS, IVE, AGG, SPY, SHY, XLF, XLE, XLB; all pay dividends...

AA - ALCOA Inc -- Major US aluminum manufacturer... Have new deals with China Aluminum & Rio Tinto; got me interested (besides that I have relatives on both sides of the family that work there). Their income is largely based on foreign labor being cheaper, but they've been steadily rising (bought because of an inner nag). Pays dividends.

CVS -- CVS Caremark-- I bought because a few billion baby boomers are going to need a zillion prescriptions very soon. They pay dividends.

RTN -- Raytheon -- an aerospace/defense co -- an investment in the wars of the world: defense systems, airplane part manufacturing, "unmanned aerial systems" (a.k.a. weapons of mass destruction), and major provider to imaging technology, etc used by Homeland Security. A massive list in 7 major components. Besides dividends and them making "a killing" from all these international civil wars, it doesn't hurt to have some voting power as an anti-war proponent. (If you can't beat them, join them.)

HON -- Honeywell-- Heating & Cooling & tech warfare systems. Because my dad just cashed out his 3 shares from 20 years ago and it was quite a bit of money for 3 shares! He used to work there so, in loyalty to receiving a portion of his profits from them and their great returns (besides my family's interests in halting their nuclear arms development), I bought a very small stake. They seem to do well and pay great dividends, even in the worst economic quarters. (my dad proudly holds onto to one share of their nuclear program segment which forces them to give him voting power -- even though they tried to force him to sell.)

IBM - Int'l Business Machines -- also seems to keep increasing, regardless of the economy. Pays dividends.

ESV - Ensco Int'l - A deep-sea oil drilling co. Doing great & dividends...

OIS -- Oil States International. No dividends, but seems to be skyrocketing up. In protest of oil prices I only buy this one when gas prices are down (as well as its share price). Seriously, it is overvalued and any more buy-ins of this stock are going to kill the working classes via their wallets at the tank. Don't buy this until it bottoms out or at least levels off. (Hold)

ACI -- Arch Coal Inc -- an East coast coal mining go that is doing incredibly well (with the China coal crisis; why I got in. Snowed in Chinese coal mines made me buy this one). Decent dividends. This stock keeps going up.

GLD -- Streettracks Gold Trust. (Index) Another back-up plan. (In case the dollar becomes worthless) No dividends

IAF -- Aberdeen Australian Fund -- I like this one a lot. They pay better dividends than any US stock, probably because of their much stronger dollar. It's been very steady when the US equities where bottoming out. I just have a great feeling about this one.

RIO - Cia Vale Do Rio Dolce -- a Brazilian mining & paper manufacturing co. Has done very well in the past and just merged with an their "child co" (they were the parent co of...) 3% dividends as of the last stock proposal.

Anyway, there are many more I'm interested in but trying to my urge to spread. It certainly seems to be how I've beat all the major self-managed investors though. I also keep a close watch on international news and find out 6 months in advance of US announcements via BBS radio and a few days in advance via Bloomberg (The major networks are very slow to catch on to actual news). You could say I'm fairly obsessed. I care about what goes on in the world and knowing it's impact on my folio and economic trends is a major bonus. I also closely watch politics and enjoy these economic meltdowns in terms of it's a chance for the "small guy" to enter the market-- which I haven't until now. Friends have advised me to wait, but I couldn't wait. My inner voice told me to get in in February and March. Oh, my point. It was that well, people are saying they aren't getting their dividends, but almost every one of my dividend paying stocks has paid out. So, there you go, I must be doing something right. The only thing that stops me from being a major player in the market is the high cost of living in Los Angeles. It's certainly a healthier habit than H&M which I wish was publicly traded, and Facebook and Trader Joes. If I were to advise someone else it would be probably to stick with the indexes and maybe a couple blue chips, or easier, a managed mutual fund, annuity, or life product. Even going long is like having a pet -- it needs constant attention. I do this because I may not have a social security as an option and even that was only formed to supplement other retirement income. Companies may do well and keep paying dividends, regardless of my personal income -- keeping my eggs in many baskets. It is also very fun. You just don't do anything stupid like buy an overvalue stock at the top of the market or bet it all on one stock company ...!!. Just don't bet the farm. Even the weediest or most barren land can grow great crops. If I wasn't paying my student loans still I'd invest in real estate too. Now is the time. (I give it a 2 year window minimum before a major recovery in that market).










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